Can RLWL 40 be confirmed? | rlwl 41 to 50 confirmation chances [easy explanation]

My sole purpose in writing this post is that your valuable time should not be wasted in this ‘remote location wait list’ status. I booked ticket from Marwar Junction (Rajasthan) to Kathgodam (Uttrakhand) on 6 February 2023 from Confirmtkt App. The train name was Ranikhet Express (15013) and other details were Sleeper Class, General Quota. When I booked the ticket, RLWL Status was showing 43, then on the 7th I saw 42 waitlisted and after that I kept checking 8,9,10 continuously for three days but Remote Location Waiting List (rlwl) was not going below 41 number.


Now only one day was left for my journey, in such a situation, I got upset and canceled the ticket and then got RAC (Reservation Against Cancellation) ticket booked for the next day. The advantage of RAC ticket is that you can do emergency journey in sleeper class, you will be given a seat to sit.


What is the conclusion here?

Whenever you book a train ticket through an irctc authorized agent of Indian Railways, always keep in mind that if your RLWL or General Waiting List 42,43,44,45,46,47,48, or If it is showing above 50 then understand that your confirmation chances are Zero (0%). Whereas ‘Rlwl‘ is less than 10 then your confirmation chances are above 90% this is my experience. And this train ticket confirmation possibility checker & prediction tool is all nonsense, Because my 83% was showing Green even after waiting for 4 days my ticket was not confirmed. And one question must be running in your mind, that how much is rlwl confirmation chances after chart preparation?” So the answer is also that if rlwl is 1 to 10 then you have 90 to 95% chance but if it is above 30 then I cannot give you any guarantee.

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